IEA: Almost 30% of cars sold in 2026 will be electric

Global EV sales will reach 23 million according to the IEA, nearly 30% of all cars sold. The current oil price shock linked to the war in Iran is helping electromobility – purchase decisions are shifting to EVs faster than expected.

In the first quarter of 2026, EV sales fell by roughly 8% YoY due to changes in subsidies in China and the USA, however:

- Europe: +30% YoY

- Asia Pacific (excluding China): +80%

- Latin America: +75%

In March 2026, 90 countries achieved growth in EV sales and 30 countries recorded record monthly sales.

China produced ~3/4 of ~22 million globally produced EVs in 2025 and dominates the global supply chain. EV exports doubled to over 2.5 million vehicles. 55% of EVs sold worldwide are Chinese imports (vs. <5% five years ago) if we strip out China, the EU and the USA. This is an absolutely unprecedented disruption of the global automotive market.

By 2035 the IEA expects 510 million EVs on the roads (vs. 80 million today) – i.e., a 6× increase without any new policy measures.

What to take away from it?

1. Climate and geopolitical logic converge. War in Iran + expensive oil = a stronger business case for EVs. This is the opposite of 2022 (the Russian invasion of Ukraine raised gas prices but also damaged the EV battery supply chain). Today the situation is better spread – oil is expensive, batteries cheap.

2. "China dominance" – if China produces 75% of global EVs and exports 2.5 million per year, the European and American automotive sectors are structurally threatened. Tariffs (EU 25–45%, US 100%) are only a brake, not a solution.

3. Czechia – it is the 3rd largest car manufacturer in the EU with almost 100% ICE/hybrid exposure (ŠKODA AUTO, Hyundai Nošovice, Toyota Kolín). If the global market shifts to 30→60→80% EVs within a decade, the Czech automotive sector must transform significantly more than so far.

4. EV trucks are the next wave. A 10% market share for trucks is a tipping point. For the Czech logistics sector (DHL Express, GW Logistics, ESA Logistika) pressure arrives in 2027–2029.

5. Investment implications. If you trust the IEA projection of 510 million EVs by 2035, lithium mining, copper, battery recycling, and charging infrastructure are structural winners.

Source: https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2026