Study of the Thai central bank: CBAM reduced Thai exports to the EU

| Jiří Staník

The Thai central bank study identified five impacts of CBAM on Thai exporters:

1) Export of CBAM products from Thailand to the EU fell by 14% compared to other Thai exports after the CBAM announcement in 2020 and by a further 24% after implementation began in 2023 — that is, even before the obligation to purchase certificates.

2) CBAM also has indirect effects on the export of non‑CBAM products, because exporters often ship various goods in bulk shipments and a decline in one category drags down the others.

3) Some Thai exporters of CBAM products redirected the export of non‑CBAM goods to non‑European markets.

4) The impacts are uneven — small firms are affected significantly more than large ones, due to limited financial resources and technical capacities.

5) Analysts at Kasikorn Research Center estimate that CBAM will affect 3.8% of Thai exports to the EU, worth approximately 28 billion baht. Only 7% of Thai exports are classified as environmentally friendly, and the share of clean energy in total consumption is just 13–14%.

Thailand is also legislatively unprepared — the climate law, necessary for introducing a carbon tax and emissions trading, ran into the dissolution of parliament, leaving the country without a legal framework to help exporters cope with CBAM.

Source: Bangkok Post - Exporters confront carbon footprints

CBAM Thailand export carbon tax

Related articles

The Korean association KITA warns about the impacts of the CBAM mechanism on Korean exports to the EU from 2031.

A new study by the Korean association KITA (Korea International Trade Association) points out the real impacts of the CBAM mechanism, which the EU introduced from January 2026, on carbon‑intensive imports – steel, aluminium, cement or fertilizers. From 2028 it is set to expand to engineering, electronics or medical devices....
Jiří Staník
READ MORE

India is experiencing a steel boom, but with a high climate price tag

India is experiencing a steel boom — but its climate cost is enormous. Nearly 90% of capacity runs on coal and a large part of production comes from small, inefficient mills. Coal is also roughly 8× cheaper than gas, so companies have no economic incentive to switch to cleaner technologies.CBAM theoretically changes the rules of the game — it disadvantages dirty production and rewards low‑emission output.It should protect European companies from “carbon dumping”, where cheap, high‑emission steel is imported into the EU without any carbon price.For India, on the other hand, it poses a potential threat — if it does …
Jiří Staník
READ MORE

Carbon tax (CBAM) as a test of the EU's negotiating power

From the beginning of 2026, the European Union will start collecting a carbon border tax on imports of goods from energy‑intensive sectors under the CBAM mechanism. This measure applies to …
Carbon tax (CBAM) as a test of the EU's negotiating power
Jiří Staník
READ MORE
Back to blog