Heat pumps are making a comeback in Europe – the war in Iran is boosting interest in green technologies
Sales of heat pumps in Europe in Q1 2026 surged sharply according to data from the European Heat Pump Association (EHPA). The trend comes as a response to higher fossil fuel prices triggered by the war in Iran – while gas and oil prices in the EU have skyrocketed, electricity prices have not risen nearly as fast:
🇫🇷 France (the largest market in Europe): +21 % → over 300 000 units per quarter
🇩🇪 Germany: +34 % – back to 2022 levels after a dramatic drop in 2023
🇫🇮 Finland in March: +71 % year‑on‑year
🇵🇱 Poland and 🇧🇪 Belgium also recorded strong growth
Average across 12 monitored countries: +16,5 %
Demand is being driven by higher gas and heating oil prices due to the Middle East conflict and the return of subsidy programmes in Germany and France, while electricity has not yet increased at the same pace.
In contrast, sales in 🇦🇹 Austria and 🇳🇱 the Netherlands fell year‑on‑year after subsidies were cancelled or adjusted.
Between 2015 and 2025, sales of heat pumps in Europe more than doubled to 2.35 million units per year. Brussels would like to see total sales of 4 million units by 2030, which would represent a primary energy saving of at least 16 %.
Heat pumps remain sensitive to two things at the same time: fossil fuel prices (operational side) and subsidy stability (investment side). Without consistent subsidies, even expensive gas is not enough – the installation is significantly more expensive than a gas boiler and the buyer needs certainty for several years ahead.
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